One of the most important principles in data and reasoning.
The mistake
Just because two things happen together:
Example
People who carry lighters are more likely to develop lung cancer.
But:
- Smoking increases lung cancer risk
- Smoking also makes people more likely to carry lighters
Conclusion:
The real cause is smoking, not carrying a lighter.
Learn more
- Khan Academy Stats: https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-probability
- StatQuest: https://www.youtube.com/@statquest
Simple takeaway
Correlation means:
A relationship, not a cause.
